UniCredit Bank Austria Analysis
Change in Austrian foreign trade leads to greater diversification, but no fundamental shift to be expected
- Trade in goods has long been a key driver of growth for the Austrian economy; the balance of trade has tended to move into surplus
- Austria is a net exporter to the Americas and Europe, but a net importer from Asia
- EU trade agreements with countries such as India, Indonesia, Australia, Canada and the Mercosur member states create additional trade potential
- Saturated markets and countries with protectionist trade policies, such as the US, are likely to become relatively less important
- Future trade flows will also be influenced by economic momentum in partner countries: high-growth countries will continue to gain in importance
- The future will bring an even broader international focus in foreign trade, but no fundamental shift
“Over the past decades, Austrian foreign trade has developed into a cornerstone of economic success. Whilst Austria still recorded a deficit in cross-border trade in goods in the years following its accession to the EU in 1995, there has since been a remarkable improvement in the balance of trade in goods. Today, trade in goods is a key driver of growth for the domestic economy and makes a significant contribution to employment, income and prosperity,” says Stefan Bruckbauer, Chief Economist at UniCredit Bank Austria, adding: “Between 1995 and 1999, Austria still recorded an average deficit in trade in goods of 2.6 per cent of GDP. Over the past 25 years, this has developed into a slight surplus averaging 0.2 per cent of GDP. In 2025, the merchandise trade balance even reached a surplus of one per cent of GDP.” Overall, trade in goods has accounted for around one-fifth of Austria’s economic growth over the past 25 years.
Austria as a net exporter to Europe and the Americas
The merchandise trade balance with the Americas improved particularly markedly. Austria now achieves a trade surplus of more than two per cent of GDP with the countries of the American continent. Strong trade relations with the USA, as well as the increasingly positive trade balances with Canada and Mexico, have contributed significantly to this. Austria also records a slight surplus with the Mercosur member states of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Similarly, the trade position with European partners has been significantly strengthened. In 2025, the trade surplus in goods with Europe stood at 1.2 per cent of GDP. The eastward enlargement of the EU, deeper economic integration and the reduction of the trade imbalance with Germany have contributed significantly to this. Despite Brexit, the United Kingdom also remains an important market with a stable export surplus.
Asia has become more important, particularly for imports
The improvement in the balance of trade in goods was primarily tempered by developments in trade with Asia, the only major economic region with which Austria has a significant trade deficit that has risen sharply in recent years. In 2025, this deficit stood at 2.7 per cent of GDP and is predominantly attributable to trade with China. However, the deficit by no means implies that trade in goods with this region is disadvantageous. Imports from Asia reached 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2025, or just under 29 billion euros. Low-cost intermediate goods and consumer goods from Asia have contributed significantly to strengthening the competitiveness of Austrian companies and to curbing inflation. At the same time, Asian markets are also becoming increasingly important as a sales region for Austrian companies. Exports of goods to Asia account for around 3.5 per cent of Austria’s GDP.
“Overall, the regional structure of Austria’s balance of trade in goods paints a clear picture: Austria is a major net exporter to the transatlantic economic area and, increasingly, to Europe as well. At the same time, there is a strong dependence on imports from Asia, particularly from China. Merchandise trade with Africa and Oceania, by contrast, is of minor economic significance and, on the whole, almost balanced,” said Walter Pudschedl, economist at UniCredit Bank Austria.
Europe remains the cornerstone of foreign trade
Despite increasing geographical diversification, Europe remains by far the most important sales and supply market for Austria. In 2025, exports to Europe accounted for 28.8 per cent of GDP, whilst imports accounted for 27.7 per cent. The Member States of the European Union alone accounted for almost 24 per cent of GDP for both exports and imports. The close economic ties with neighbouring European countries, the single market and established supply chains thus continue to form the foundation of Austria’s foreign trade. In merchandise trade with countries outside the European Union, the United Kingdom and the USA continue to play an important role, despite changes in the political landscape, particularly with regard to exports. The relative importance of both markets has recently tended to stagnate, or even declined slightly, due to political uncertainties and trade tensions. By contrast, Asia has gained considerably in importance as a trading partner for Austria. The driving force behind this development is, in particular, the dynamic expansion of trade with China. The region’s growing importance is particularly evident on the import side.
New free trade agreements open up additional opportunities
“International trade policy is increasingly becoming a decisive factor in the geographical orientation of foreign trade. Whilst protectionist tendencies in individual markets are complicating trade relations, the European Union is increasingly focusing on concluding new free trade agreements. These agreements create additional export opportunities for Austrian companies and facilitate access to some of the world’s fastest-growing markets,” says Pudschedl.
Among the most important initiatives are the agreements with Canada, Mexico, the Mercosur member states and numerous Asian partners such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia and India. Furthermore, political agreement on a free trade agreement between the European Union and Australia was reached in March 2026.
Projection to 2031: Diversification rather than relocation
In addition to the trade policy framework, the future development of Austrian trade flows will be largely determined by the economic dynamics of the respective destination and origin markets. Our simulation of developments up to 2031 highlights these trends. Assuming that Austria can maintain its current market shares in the respective export markets, the differing growth rates of its trading partners will automatically lead to a shift in the geographical structure of exports. In this scenario, the share of goods exports to Asia in Austria’s GDP rises by almost 14 per cent. Growth is particularly marked in the case of India, at over 35 per cent, followed by the ASEAN countries at around 15 per cent and China at over 10 per cent. Africa is also gaining in importance as a market. The share of exports to Africa relative to Austria’s economic output will increase by 12 per cent. By contrast, growth in exports to the US is comparatively low at around one per cent, whilst Europe’s share is actually set to decline slightly due to its lower economic growth prospects.
“Our analysis of future trade trends up to 2031 shows that the geographical structure of Austrian foreign trade will continue to change. Exports to Asia, but also to Africa, are likely to develop particularly dynamically. India, the ASEAN countries and China, in particular, are expected to gain in importance,” says Pudschedl, adding: “However, there is no question of a shift away from Europe. Whilst Europe’s share of total export volume is likely to fall slightly, in absolute terms the EU Member States remain by far the most important market for Austria. More than 60 per cent of Austria’s total export growth up to 2031 will continue to be accounted for by the European single market.”
A broader international footprint as a strategy for success
“The results clearly show that Austria’s foreign trade is not moving away from the developed markets in America or Europe but is becoming more diversified. Whilst Europe will remain the backbone of Austria’s export economy in the future, high-growth regions in Asia, Africa and Latin America are increasingly providing additional impetus,” says Pudschedl.
For Austrian companies, this means securing their strong position in Europe whilst at the same time capitalising on new opportunities in the world’s most dynamic markets. A successful combination of a European foothold and global diversification will be crucial to securing future growth, employment and prosperity in Austria.
“New free trade agreements and dynamic growth markets present Austria with great opportunities. However, whether we can actually capitalise on this potential will also depend to a large extent on how successfully we navigate the AI revolution. The future of foreign trade is determined not only at the borders, but increasingly also by the ability of companies and employees to deploy new technologies quickly and productively,” concludes Bruckbauer.
Further information can be found in our analysis: ‘Foreign Trade in Transition: Where will Austria’s Future be Situated?’, UniCredit Bank Austria, August 2026.
Enquiries:
UniCredit Bank Austria Economics & Market Analysis Austria
Walter Pudschedl, Tel.: +43 (0) 5 05 05-41957;
Email: walter.pudschedl@unicreditgroup.at