GDP revised: Slight growth for 2025 now on the horizon
“The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator rose significantly to minus 2.0 points in May. The indicator thus reached its best value in exactly one year,” says UniCredit Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer and adds: “Despite the increase, however, the indicator signals the continuation of subdued economic development in Austria. Even if there were a few rays of hope in isolated cases, the industry climate was below the long-term average in all economic sectors in May. Following the slight increase in GDP in the first quarter by 0.1 percent compared to the previous quarter - supported by an increase in industry after stagnation towards the end of 2024 - the prospects for a continuation of the upward trend are mixed. Although we do not expect the Austrian economy to slide back into recession, we continue to expect only a modest pace of growth for the rest of 2025, roughly at the level of the first quarter.”
- The latest GDP revision by Statistics Austria increases the chance of slightly positive GDP growth in 2025 as a whole
- With unchanged growth expectations during the year, GDP is now expected to rise by 0.1 percent instead of falling by 0.2 percent in 2025
- Significant improvement in the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator in May to minus 2.0 points
- Brightening sentiment in the service sector supported by increased consumer confidence and less pessimism in industry
- However, the mood in the construction industry deteriorated slightly again
- After unemployment rate rises to 7.5 percent in 2025, the weak economy is unlikely to ease the situation on the labor market next year
- Stubborn service price inflation slows down energy price-related decline in inflation. Risk to our inflation forecast of 2.5% on average for 2025 has increased
- Last key interest rate cut in the current cycle by 25 basis points expected after the summer
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator (PDF)
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator – Computation method (PDF)
as of June, 2025
About UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator
The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator provides an overview of the current economic situation in Austria.
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