About Business Indicator
The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator seeks to assess the economic climate in Austria based on a range of sentiment and leading indicators. The goal is to provide a meaningful measure of the current economic situation and immediate future developments well in advance – approximately one quarter before the release of official GDP figures.
Conflict in the Gulf region continues to weigh on Austria´s economy
“Following a slight improvement the previous month, the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell to minus 1.8 points in June. After standing at minus 0.8 points in the first three months of the year, the indicator deteriorated to an average of minus 1.7 points in the second quarter due to the war in the Gulf region,” says UniCredit Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer, adding: “For the second quarter that just ended, the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator points to an economic slowdown following the moderate growth rates of the previous quarters. We assume that the Austrian economy stagnated over the past three months compared to the start of the year. Nevertheless, GDP in Austria is likely to have grown by 0.8 percent year-over-year in the first half of the year.”
- Fragile agreement between the U.S. and Iran dampens economic sentiment: The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell to minus 1.8 points in June
- Sentiment deteriorated in the industrial and service sectors, but there was slightly less pessimism in the construction sector at midyear
- Economic slowdown in the second quarter due to the impact of the war in Iran, but a more favorable outlook for the second half of the year if the current escalation remains limited
- GDP growth for the full years 2026 and 2027 is still expected to be 0.8 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively
- Continued deterioration in the labor market: Unemployment rate expected to rise to 7.5 percent in 2026
- Inflation forecast lowered from 3.4 to 3.2 percent for 2026 and from 2.6 to 2.5 percent for 2027
- Another 25-basis-point key interest rate hike by the ECB is expected after the summer
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator (PDF)
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator – Computation method (PDF)
as of July, 2026
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It is an analysis based on publicly available economic data. Despite careful research and the use of reliable sources, no responsibility can be taken for completeness, correctness, timeliness and accuracy.
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