Industry slows down pace of economic recovery

The recovery of the Austrian economy is making only sluggish progress, characterized by a high level of uncertainty. "The previously restrained but stable upward trend in the economy came to an end in the middle of the year. After rising for eight months, the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell to minus 2.4 points in June," says UniCredit Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer, adding: "Although the economy stabilized in the first half of the year, the pace of recovery remained slow. With the current setback, there are currently no signs of a better start to the second half of the year. The recovery is unlikely to gain any momentum over the summer, especially as there is no sign of an easing of the divergent economic trends in the service and manufacturing sectors." While many service sectors are benefiting from the rising purchasing power of domestic consumers, production in industry and construction is continuing to be scaled back due to a weak order trend.

  • UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell to minus 2.4 points in June 
  • Negative impact from significant deterioration in industrial sentiment and service sentiment due to industry-related service areas 
  • Recovery remains bumpy in the second half of the year: growth forecast for 2024 unchanged at just 0.3 % 
  • Monetary easing and global recovery should enable a slight acceleration in GDP growth to 1.5 % in 2025
  • Inflation stabilizes at around 3% in the second half of 2024. After an average of 3.6 % in 2024, inflation is likely to fall to 2.3 % in 2025
  • We raise the unemployment rate forecast for 2024 to 6.9 % and 6.7 % on average for 2025
     

chart UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator and GDP real

UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator (PDF)
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator – Computation method (PDF)

as of July, 2024


About UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator

The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator provides an overview of the current economic situation in Austria.

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