Economy stable, but growth signals still lacking

“The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator fell only minimally compared to the previous month to minus 2.1 points, the best value of the current year apart from May,” says UniCredit Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer, adding: “Although the Austrian economy has left the recession behind, it has only entered a stagnation phase without any clear signs of growth. In the course of the second half of the year, however, the economy should be able to overcome the stagnation thanks to stimuli from domestic demand, but a strong upward trend is not yet apparent in view of the existing challenges.”

  • Minimal decline in the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator in June to minus 2.1 points
  • Deteriorating sentiment in the service sector and in domestic industry despite slightly more favorable export environment 
  • After economic stabilization in 2025, domestic demand should enable moderate economic growth of 1.1 per cent in 2026
  • 30 per cent tariff on Austrian exports to the USA would reduce GDP by 0.4 percentage points and cost 15,000 jobs
  • The rise in the unemployment rate will slow in the second half of the year and come to an end in 2026: After 7.5 per cent in 2025, an unemployment rate of 7.5 per cent is also expected in 2026 
  • Services inflation remains stubborn: inflation in Austria will remain at the previous year's level of 2.9 per cent on average in 2025. A decline to 2.1 per cent is only in sight for 2026
     

chart UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator and GDP real

UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator (PDF)
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator – Computation method (PDF)

as of July, 2025


About UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator

The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator provides an overview of the current economic situation in Austria.

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