About Business Indicator
The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator seeks to assess the economic climate in Austria based on a range of sentiment and leading indicators. The goal is to provide a meaningful measure of the current economic situation and immediate future developments well in advance – approximately one quarter before the release of official GDP figures.
Iran war causes economic dip, possible end improves conditions for the second half of the year
Following the slump caused by the war in Iran, economic sentiment in Austria recovered somewhat in May, but remained very tense. “The UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator rose to minus 1.4 points in May”, says UniCredit Bank Austria Chief Economist Stefan Bruckbauer, adding: “The slight upturn in the economic indicator was due to a more favourable mood among domestic consumers and improved expectations in industry. In construction, and particularly in the services sector, however, business assessments continued to deteriorate.”
- Following the slump caused by the war in Iran, sentiment is stabilizing again: the UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator rose to minus 1.4 points in May
- Improved consumer sentiment and waning pessimism in industry, but economic concerns in construction and, above all, in the services sector continue to grow
- Following slight growth at the start of the year, the Austrian economy is likely to stagnate in the second quarter due to the strain caused by the war in Iran
- GDP growth for the full year is expected to remain unchanged at 0.8 per cent in 2026 and 1.2 per cent in 2027
- Following the rise in the unemployment rate to 7.5 per cent in 2026, the easing of the geopolitical situation should allow for a decline to 7.4 per cent in 2027
- First second-round effects of persistently high energy prices are becoming noticeable: inflation forecast for 2026 raised from 3.0 to 3.4 per cent
- A further key interest rate hike of 25 basis points is expected in September
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator (PDF)
UniCredit Bank Austria Business Indicator – Computation method (PDF)
as of June, 2026
These publications do not constitute investment advice, investment recommendations, marketing communications, or financial analysis. In particular, they are not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities and do not constitute a solicitation to make such an offer. They are intended solely as initial information and are no substitute for advice based on the individual circumstances and knowledge of the investor.
It is an analysis based on publicly available economic data. Despite careful research and the use of reliable sources, no responsibility can be taken for completeness, correctness, timeliness and accuracy.
Any investment in securities involves risks. The value of the investment and the income from it may fluctuate suddenly and substantially and therefore cannot be guaranteed. There is a possibility that the investor will not get back the full amount invested, particularly if the investment is held for only a short time. In some circumstances, a total loss is also possible.
Possible (return) payments from the product may not protect investors against inflation risk. There can be no assurance, therefore, that the purchasing power of the capital invested will not be affected by a general increase in the prices of consumer goods. Figures and information on performance refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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