Get defensive as growth slowdown looms
- Macro: Global growth is likely to moderate further to 3.4% in 2019, with the slowdown set to intensify in 2020 as the US slips into a mild recession. The Fed will probably hike rates through 1H19 and reverse course in 2020 with three cuts. The ECB will have just enough time to exit negative rates in 1Q20 before eurozone growth weakens materially.
- FI: We expect 10Y US yields to peak in the 3.25-3.50% range in mid-2019 before falling back to 2.75% by year end, with the curve inverting. Pressure on core EGBs is likely to be limited. We expect BTP spreads to widen to 350-375bp in 1H19 due to high supply and political uncertainty, before easing back to 275bp later in the year.
- FX: EUR-USD is likely to slip to 1.08 by mid-2019, reflecting the risk picture and the US-eurozone growth differential. A reversal back to 1.20 seems likely in 2020 as the Fed starts cutting rates. Sterling has room to rebound once Brexit-related uncertainty recedes. The JPY and the CHF will likely rise over a two-year horizon.
- Equities: We expect 2019 to be a volatile – and mostly unattractive – year for equities. Our 2019 year-end index target for the Euro STOXX 50 is 3300, for the DAX 12000 and for the FTSE MIB 19800. 2019 will be dominated by a slowdown in earnings growth globally. We still consider consensus estimates to be too optimistic.
- Credit: Investors should prepare for considerable spread widening in 2019 as there will be a slowdown in earnings alongside an economic deceleration. Credit fundamentals of European corporates are in better shape than those of US peers and a decline in issuance activity will partly offset the substantially reduced demand from the CSPP.
- CEEMEA: EMFX should continue to perform poorly in trade-weighted terms given the deteriorating trend in global trade volumes, but EMFX-USD could get a lift along with EUR-USD in 2H19. EM credit will likely face pressure in 1H19 but some relief should be seen in 2H19 as the dollar eases and US yields come down.
Source: UniCredit Research – The UniCredit Macro & Markets 2019-20 Outlook, 15 November 2018,