Things quiet down on the ATX
Volatility set to decline
Disjointed stock price development, risks remain
Economists around the world continue to advise caution because the crisis is not yet over, but the warnings are falling on deaf ears as far as the stock markets are concerned. A closer examination reveals few fundamental backing for the current stock price surge, and Alfred Reisenberger, Head of Equity Research Austria at UniCredit (CA IB) also advises restraint: "There is still a great deal of uncertainty, but this is not reflected in the current stock prices. Investors are ignoring the warnings, many are acting as if nothing were amiss."
The huge amount of liquidity on the market, which is in part a result of injections by the central banks to stem the effects of the crisis on the US mortgage market, is one big reason for the disjointed development of stock prices around the world. Another factor pushing stock prices up is the attractive valuation levels, but Reisenberger takes these with a grain of salt. "Earnings projections can still be off by a wide margin as long as the crisis in the USA has not passed. Third quarter reports should shed more light on how businesses are really doing."
Modest earnings growth
Breaking the trend of recent years, earnings growth for listed Austrian companies has not increased to any significant extent since the beginning of the year. The high volatility is likely to die down again on the Vienna stock exchange after the announcement of the third-quarter results, which should bring no real surprises.
UniCredit analysts project the ATX to keep its level for the moment. It may, however, rebound by the end of the year and reach levels of 4,950 points. Non-cyclical stocks like Post, Flughafen Wien and Verbund are looking more interesting again, as are SBO, Wienerberger, CA Immo and Immoeast.
Enquiries: Veronika Fischer-Rief
UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking, Public Relations
Tel. +43 50505-82833,
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